BALTIMORE — Before a World Series rematch came a potential playoff preview, a showdown of two American League titans trying to improve their October outlooks.
The Houston Astros aren’t going to bemoan a series split against the Baltimore Orioles, but it’s difficult to overlook how close they came to a sweep. If not for another blunder at first base and a rare meltdown by reliever Bryan Abreu, the Astros would’ve woke up on Monday as baseball’s hottest team and, perhaps, with their largest division lead this season.
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Instead, they’ll arrive at Citizens Bank Park with a 4 1/2-game cushion over the Seattle Mariners in the American League West. Philadelphia aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are lined up to start the series’ first two games, prolonging a grueling 18-day stretch.
The Astros are 3-5 across the first eight games of it. Four against the Kansas City Royals follow their three against the Phillies. Amid the gauntlet, here are three takeaways.
An early free-agent target?
Anthony Santander’s swing against Abreu on Friday night left some in the Astros’ clubhouse awestruck. Abreu executed a 98.5 mph fastball well above Santander’s strike zone — 3.92 feet off the ground, according to Statcast — and still watched it sail into the right field seats for a go-ahead grand slam.
“Honestly, I don’t know how he hit that ball,” Houston second baseman Jose Altuve said. “He’s a great player, so he deserved it.”
IF GO-AHEAD GRAND SLAMS ARE YOUR THING: pic.twitter.com/I6J0JZ7g05
— MLB (@MLB) August 24, 2024
Altuve and Santander were teammates during last year’s World Baseball Classic, on a club managed by current Astros bench coach Omar López. Relationships between them remain and envisioning a reality where all three share the same clubhouse next season is easy.
Santander is an ideal fit for a Houston team that must upgrade its lineup this winter. Acquiring at least one bat should be general manager Dana Brown’s foremost offseason priority. Still, if third baseman Alex Bregman leaves in free agency, the Astros may be in the market for multiple established hitters.
The Astros won’t sniff the Juan Soto sweepstakes, but Santander should stand out to them in an otherwise thin position-player market. He is having a prolific platform year and can play the two most unsettled positions on the Astros’ roster — left field and first base. A majority of Santander’s starts have come in right field, which Kyle Tucker could vacate in Houston if and when he enters free agency after next season.
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Santander turns 30 in October, so it’s conceivable he could seek a deal of at least four or five years. Owner Jim Crane broke precedent last winter by giving Josh Hader a five-year, $95 million contract — the largest and longest free-agent deal of his ownership tenure.
Santander played at least 152 games in both 2022 and 2023 and is on pace to maintain that workload this season. Through that three-season stretch, Santander has posted a 124 OPS+ and .481 slugging percentage.
Santander has hit at least 28 home runs in each of the past two seasons and has already amassed a career-high 38 this year. Santander’s career 20.8 percent strikeout rate is below league average, too, important for an Astros organization that prioritizes putting the ball in play.
Metrics don’t paint Santander as a standout defender, but playing 81 games in Minute Maid Park’s cozy left field could mask that. Santander has a limited major-league sample size at first base, so Houston could still pivot to other, cheaper options like Christian Walker or Paul Goldschmidt if it intends to address the position externally.
Reviewing the ‘return to play’ procedure
Pulling Penn Murfee off his minor-league rehab assignment on Thursday didn’t impact any of the Astros’ immediate plans. Murfee underwent Tommy John surgery last July and, while Houston remained hopeful he could contribute to its bullpen this season, the club had no concrete expectations.
Murfee experienced what the team described as “a reoccurrence of right elbow discomfort” after one outing with Class-A Fayetteville. Pitchers recovering from reconstructive arm surgeries must exercise caution and don’t always adhere to conventional timelines, but Murfee’s conundrum is becoming far too common within the Astros’ organization.
Penn Murfee was returned from his rehab assignment with what the Astros described as “a reoccurrence of right elbow discomfort.”
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) August 22, 2024
Murfee is the fifth Astros pitcher this season to suffer a setback while rehabilitating an arm injury, joining Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier and José Urquidy. A sixth, J.P. France, required season-ending surgery after Brown acknowledged the team rushed him back from a shoulder injury in spring training.
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No two arm injuries are created equal, nor are any two rehab processes uniform, but the sheer volume of setbacks prompts wonder whether Houston will re-examine its rehabilitation regimens. Tucker’s prolonged absence from a bone bruise only furthers the thought that something is amiss.
It’s impossible to know if something is. The Astros refuse to make any members of their training or medical staff available to reporters for clarity or explanations. Two years ago, though, former general manager James Click promised a review of the club’s “return to play procedure” in the wake of Jake Meyers’ rushed recovery from shoulder surgery.
Crane fired Click before it could be considered. Asked twice this weekend whether the volume of pitching setbacks could prompt a deeper look into organizational practices, Brown downplayed the concern.
“When you have an injury like most of these guys have had, those things you hope to come back and give that soft, tentative date and it just doesn’t always work that way,” Brown said on Friday. “Sometimes guys have these setbacks and then, before you know it, they’re back and they’re good to go. I think when you have any kind of Tommy John or difficult shoulder operations, there’s going to be setbacks. That’s what we’re experiencing.
“I don’t think it’s (an organizational problem). I do think for some of our guys, (they’ve) pitched multiple innings in the postseason and that grind is starting to show up more in our injuries in our pitching. These guys that have pitched deep into the postseason for multiple years, that takes its toll on you.”
The trouble with Tucker
Tucker did not accompany the Astros on this two-city, seven-game road trip. On Sunday afternoon, manager Joe Espada said “there is nothing new to report” about Tucker’s progress back in Houston.
“He actually sent me a very long, long, long text message and it was full of a lot of positive notes,” Espada added, “so that was very encouraging.”
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Brown remains bullish that Tucker could return during the first week of September, saying on Friday that the time is nearing “where you have to push it a little harder and see how it goes.”
September starts in six days. On Sunday, Espada confirmed Tucker is still not sprinting at full speed, nor has he tested himself running the bases. Until he does, a minor-league rehab assignment won’t be realistic.
Brown has already said Tucker will have to manage some amount of pain upon his return. That Tucker continues to take batting practice and throw without issues is encouraging, perhaps prompting wonder if Tucker could return sooner in a more limited capacity.
The problem is that Houston does not have a roster capable of carrying another part-time defensive player. Bregman’s elbow issues already mean he may have to take more days as the team’s designated hitter. Espada has to keep Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini together in the lineup as much as possible, too, potentially clogging the designated hitter spot.
If Tucker can’t run, it takes away a facet of his game many miss. He has a career 88 percent success rate stealing bases — the league average is 76 percent — and fell one stolen base shy of a 30/30 season last year. Tucker takes extra bases successfully 46 percent of the time, too, five percent above league average.
Tucker is a three-time Gold Glove finalist and one-time winner in right field. Maintaining that requires running and, until Tucker is seen doing it, nothing Astros officials proclaim carries much weight.
(Photo of Kyle Tucker from Aug. 16: Erik Williams / USA Today)
Chandler Rome is a Staff Writer for The Athletic covering the Houston Astros. Before joining The Athletic, he covered the Astros for five years at the Houston Chronicle. He is a graduate of Louisiana State University. Follow Chandler on Twitter @Chandler_Rome
